After experiencing two years of cumulative losses, global real estate returns have finally turned positive in the second quarter of 2024, indicating a budding recovery. This comes after a period of record-low interest rates, which drove real estate values to soar. In the fourth quarter of 2021, total global returns reached 5.0% quarter-on-quarter, and 17.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 – significantly higher than long-term averages. However, with the tightening cycle that followed, these gains were wiped out, bringing values back to 2018 levels globally. While this correction has been significant, our research suggests that the real estate market may now be nearing a bottom, making it an opportune time for investors to consider this asset class.
Real estate has a long history of providing stable income returns and diversification benefits over the long term. It has also demonstrated its ability to offer strong returns during recovery periods. For example, after the early 90s recession, investors saw a 76% cumulative return over the next five years. Similarly, after the tech-wreck and the Global Financial Crisis, investors saw returns of 98% and 86% respectively over the following five years.
In the second quarter of 2024, global real estate values saw a moderate decline of only 0.74%, the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. With offsetting income returns of 1.07%, global real estate achieved a positive total return of 0.33%, marking the first positive quarter since the second quarter of 2022.
Of the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, a slight majority saw increases in real estate values for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK experienced value increases from the prior quarter. Six markets saw value losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, all of which were lower than the losses seen in the first quarter of 2024. Only Australia recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter than in the first, with a 4.2% correction aligning valuations more closely with its peers.
However, changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income. This trend underscores the importance of income returns in driving overall performance in the real estate sector, highlighting the need for investors to consider both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
In the second quarter of 2024, total returns, which combine capital and income returns, were positive in 12 of 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index. They were flat in the US (-0.09%), slightly negative in Ireland (-0.22%), and significantly negative in Australia (-3.07%). The preliminary NCREIF ODCE Index (a capitalisation-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index) data showed US total returns turning positive (0.25%). With values beginning to rebound, we expect this positive trajectory in total returns to continue.
Although fundraising for real estate investment globally shows signs of a rebound following two slow years, China and Japan may face challenges. In the third quarter of 2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the US$7.5 billion ($10.04 billion) in cross-border inflows in the Asia Pacific region. While Japan’s inflows mostly came from global sources, most of China’s came from within the Asia Pacific region, particularly from Hong Kong and Singapore. Both countries are facing high debt costs and other factors that may hinder a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows.
In recent years, interest in Chinese real estate from the West has dramatically declined due to geopolitical and economic concerns. Despite Beijing’s recent major stimulus package, interest is unlikely to return soon. The market has been stagnant due to price dislocation, geopolitical risk, and lack of liquidity. Since 2011, China has faced a property crisis exacerbated by the collapse of Evergrande. Due to these risks, many European investors are avoiding China and Hong Kong, regardless of potential returns. Additionally, China’s domestic property crisis persists, with high office vacancies and low rental yields, ongoing issues with failing developers, and government interventions.
Investing in a Singapore Condo requires careful consideration of financing. With a variety of mortgage options available, it’s important for investors to understand and navigate the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework. This framework sets a limit on the amount of loan a borrower can take based on their income and existing debt obligations. To make informed decisions about financing, it’s crucial to work with financial advisors or mortgage brokers, who can help avoid over-leveraging. Staying informed about the TDSR and choosing the right financing options is essential for a successful investment in a Singapore Condo.
Meanwhile, while major property markets like the US have cut interest rates to boost investment, Japan remains an outlier. The broader Japanese property sector is losing allure due to interest rate policies and limited cap rate compression. In July 2024, the Bank of Japan raised its borrowing rates for the first time since 2007 to control inflation, reducing market attractiveness. This hike has prevented cap rate compression, meaning property prices have not risen, forcing real estate holders to rely on historically low-income yields.
However, the senior housing sector in Japan remains an attractive niche due to the country’s ageing population, with 29% aged 65 or over. These assets are small, requiring an amalgamation play by investors. Additionally, the purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market in Australia has enormous potential due to a significant housing shortage. Currently, only 20% of students in Melbourne and Sydney can be accommodated by universities, forcing the rest to seek private rentals. Moreover, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns, with funding gaps in construction, and many developers struggling to secure bank financing. Sectors like logistics or PBSA, where we see long-term growth opportunities, are especially promising.
While there may still be bumps in the road, we believe the real estate market is beginning to look up, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors. However, this recovery may not lift all markets and property types equally. For instance, the US office market still faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment seems highly unlikely in the near term. This underscores the importance of research and selectivity when investing in real estate, as not all markets and property types will perform equally well.
In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has significantly decreased due to resetting real estate values and a record stock market. Today, investors might consider fresh allocations to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. Over the long term, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and a degree of inflation-hedging. While there may be bumps in the road, we believe the market is beginning to look up, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.…